Rebel SOS 22 Silencer Review

[Laufen]

Now this is a valid point, but it is also dodging your original post that was proven exaggerative. I completely agree prices will rise as demand spikes drastically.

Not dodging anything, and nothing has been proven. It's all pure speculation at this point. Once a law is passed it doesn't immediately become the law of the land. Remember HB380..that took what, 6-7 months before it became law? How hard is it to find .22 ammo during a buying frenzy, how long does it take before supply comes back? The timetable will encompass more than just how long it is before you could buy one over the counter, there will have to be product available for purchase.

Here's how I'm looking at it.

9-12 months to pass (if it does)
6 months before it becomes law
A shortage that makes the rimfire ammo shortage look like a blip on the radar.

 

[Leshaire]

Not dodging anything, and nothing has been proven. It's all pure speculation at this point. Once a law is passed it doesn't immediately become the law of the land. Remember HB380..that took what, 6-7 months before it became law? How hard is it to find .22 ammo during a buying frenzy, how long does it take before supply comes back? The timetable will encompass more than just how long it is before you could buy one over the counter, there will have to be product available for purchase.

Here's how I'm looking at it.

9-12 months to pass (if it does)
6 months before it becomes law
A shortage that makes the rimfire ammo shortage look like a blip on the radar.

Nothing has been proven? Data from the government website is just 'speculation' to you? Interesting. Even with the added "6-7 months" an average of ~263 days + 6-7 months is no where near your speculation of 4 years... I think you just threw out a random number for the sake of arguing with dumb dumbs. But a simple google search shows its a bit exaggerated. I realize it will be a while, but let's stick to the time frame noted here, instead of changing to supply/demand which we both agree on.

 

[KGmade]

Have you shot it yet?

 

[Laufen]

Nothing has been proven? Data from the government website is just 'speculation' to you? Interesting. Even with the added "6-7 months" an average of ~263 days + 6-7 months is no where near your speculation of 4 years...

That's only part of the equation. We have no idea how big of a run there would be, and how long it would take inventory to catch up to demand. So no, there isn't a proven time frame, only an educated guess at one of the variables (how long on average to pass and enact a law).

1.5 + x = y

 

[Leshaire]

Not dodging anything, and nothing has been proven. It's all pure speculation at this point. Once a law is passed it doesn't immediately become the law of the land. Remember HB380..that took what, 6-7 months before it became law? How hard is it to find .22 ammo during a buying frenzy, how long does it take before supply comes back? The timetable will encompass more than just how long it is before you could buy one over the counter, there will have to be product available for purchase.

Here's how I'm looking at it.

9-12 months to pass (if it does)
6 months before it becomes law
A shortage that makes the rimfire ammo shortage look like a blip on the radar.

Yeah I am not looking forward to a shortage, BUT if you recall the majority of the shortage was due to strategic business management decisions to not upgrade or buy more expensive machinery, buy more warehouse space, and hire a shit ton of employees for a temporary increase in demand and lack of supply. Several manufactures stated that they knew it would blow over and they were not going to spend a fortune to be able to cover the demand that was going to drop. They were right, and it did. But maybe a bill like this would indicate longer term increase in demand and warrant the increase in capacity? If so, there won't be nearly as much of a shortage as you think.

 

[Laufen]

Yeah I am not looking forward to a shortage, BUT if you recall the majority of the shortage was due to strategic business management decisions to not upgrade or buy more expensive machinery, buy more warehouse space, and hire a shit ton of employees for a temporary increase in demand and lack of supply. Several manufactures stated that they knew it would blow over and they were not going to spend a fortune to be able to cover the demand that was going to drop. They were right, and it did. But maybe a bill like this would indicate longer term increase in demand and warrant the increase in capacity? If so, there won't be nearly as much of a shortage as you think.

Do you think suppressor manufacturers are gambling with lots of $$$ on the eventual passage of the HPA? Some might be, but I'll bet that many are already running at capacity and aren't investing huge amounts of capital on the chance that it passes either.

 

[Leshaire]

That's only part of the equation. We have no idea how big of a run there would be, and how long it would take inventory to catch up to demand. So no, there isn't a proven time frame, only an educated guess at one of the variables (how long on average to pass and enact a law).

1.5 + x = y

But you're still sidewinding into this ammo timeline that I was not arguing about whatsoever.

 

[Laufen]

But you're still sidewinding into this ammo timeline that I was not arguing about whatsoever.

Nope, the 1.5 is about how long it'd take to become law if it sails through (which it most likely won't), then we know, without a doubt that demand would strip supply for X amount of time. This is all pretty easy to extrapolate just because we know how humans react. Now, I'll concede that as far as motivators to purchase go, excitement is not quite as powerful as fear, but it'd still decimate supply for a good long while.

 

[Leshaire]

Nope, the 1.5 is about how long it'd take to become law if it sails through (which it most likely won't), then we know, without a doubt that demand would strip supply for X amount of time. This is all pretty easy to extrapolate just because we know how humans react. Now, I'll concede that as far as motivators to purchase go, excitement is not quite as powerful as fear, but it'd still decimate supply for a good long while.

So you're down to a very reasonable 1.5 instead of 4. Glad I could be of assistance

 

[Laufen]

So you're down to a very reasonable 1.5 instead of 4. Glad I could be of assistance

No you misunderstood entirely, 1.5 years just for the legislation to become law, then X amount of time before there is actually supply available for purchase.

Imagine if the HPA passed today and would be law on July 1st. When do you think you'd be able to walk into a store and buy a can off the shelf?

 

[Leshaire]

No you misunderstood entirely, 1.5 years just for the legislation to become law, then X amount of time before there is actually supply available for purchase.

Imagine if the HPA passed today and would be law on July 1st. When do you think you'd be able to walk into a store and buy a can off the shelf?

I'm sure it would be just the same as everything else. A short blip of excitement and no cans on the shelves for a few months, then a small but consistent supply going forward until manufactures can, or chose to, meet supply with demand.

 

[Laufen]

I'm sure it would be just the same as everything else. A short blip of excitement and no cans on the shelves for a few months, then a small but consistent supply going forward until manufactures can, or chose to, meet supply with demand.

Well that's contrary to what everyone in the industry seems to be saying, but kudos for the rosy perspective.

 

[Leshaire]

Well that's contrary to what everyone in the industry seems to be saying, but kudos for the rosy perspective.

Thats what we have seen historically... If anything, my guess will be true with some high ass prices, like those of 22 ammo. I could find 22 the entire time pretty much after the first month or two, it was just pricey.

 

[Laufen]

Thats what we have seen historically... If anything, my guess will be true with some high ass prices, like those of 22 ammo. I could find 22 the entire time pretty much after the first month or two, it was just pricey.

I'm positive gunbroker would be full of $300 Rebel 22 suppressors, and I'll bet that a chunk of those guys will get hammered by the ATF for engaging in the business of selling firearms for profit sans ffl.

 

[Stonewall]

And this is why it's so hard for me to pick out the right suppressor. I'm not trying to wait 9 or 10 months for junk.

 

[Leshaire]

And this is why it's so hard for me to pick out the right suppressor. I'm not trying to wait 9 or 10 months for junk.

Meh, a little research will help with that. Oh and not being cheap

 

[DoglegArms]

do you have the ability to meter this one?

Not currently. I will be attending a metering later this year.

 

[DoglegArms]

Have you shot it yet?

Not yet. Will this afternoon.

 

[Stonewall]

Meh, a little research will help with that. Oh and not being cheap

Right.

 

[AtlMedic]

And this is why it's so hard for me to pick out the right suppressor. I'm not trying to wait 9 or 10 months for junk.

I think @DoglegArms amd @NWS talked about a range and demo day sometime maybe this spring?