HPA is NOT a reason to wait!

[Mac11FA]

@Cudruln shared @KGmade Instagram post on book of faces, so I thought I would share here:

"Something I am explaining to customers daily,. I heard it alot at shot show also. Everyone is waiting, so it's hurting more shops than people think. HPA is hurting the industry more than its helping. Government legislation isn't a fast process. There are dealers dropping NFA products weekly since the sales are going down. Please go support your local shops @quietriotfirearms, @gafiringline, @capitolarmory, etc.. If this passes there will be huge surge of fly by night people showing up to get in on the surge

@Regrann from @silencers_1909 - CEO of @silencerco Joshua Waldron on @nratv talking about why you should not wait for the Hearing Protection Act.

I keep seeing comments saying something to the effect of "I'll wait for HPA to pass"

Let me drop a lil knowledge on you:

Bills don't pass overnight. We might be waiting 1-2 years before legislation is passed & enacted.

The ATF backlog is do to the 41F/P panic. Currently still 300k+ backlog of forms but wait times are still averaging 8 months due to the amazing work by the NFA examiners at Needy rd.

We're getting back end of April forms which leaves May, June & a 1/3 of July submissions.

Once this backlog is quenched, wait times will crash down to what I assume will be 2-3 months.

When HPA becomes law, you will not be able to find silencers. @silencerco, the largest manufacturer in the world, can only produce 12k total cans a month.
The number of available dealers will jump from 4K to 50k (once they wait 3-4 months to get their SOT). Probably more in actuality because there will be a backlog to set them up.
By not supporting the NFA industry now in this critical time will place a strain on dealers (like ourselves), distributors & manufacturers. So less money going to help lobby & promote the HPA because there's less money coming in.
This has also caused some dealers & manufacturers to stop supporting the HPA all together.

I'm not saying to run out & start buying cans but rather... if there's a can that you want & can afford to purchase... please do. Plus with supply low & demand high, the prices will soar.
Everytime someone waits for HPA to pass, the less chance that it will. - #regrann"

 

[KGmade]

There are so many people waiting that the entire suppressor market is down. Distributors have all but stopped purchasing, companies we talked to have halted R&D on new stuff, and manufacturers are scaling back production. It really sucks, not cause we wanted to get rich selling suppressors, but we have a ton of cool stuff on the drawing boards that I was hoping to bring out soon. R&D is very expensive, so it looks like most of it is getting put on the backburner unfortunately.

Personally, I dont have much faith in the federal government to not only reduce "gun control", but also reduce revenue in a single bill. There is still a ton of misinformation and stigma about suppressors to the average American. NFA weapons have come a VERY long way in the last 10-15 years, but they are still a TINY percentage of the firearms industry, which is still a small percentage of the population. I would love to be wrong though. I do think the post 41F lull will make for some super short wait times soon though

 

[Mac11FA]

There are so many people waiting that the entire suppressor market is down. Distributors have all but stopped purchasing, companies we talked to have halted R&D on new stuff, and manufacturers are scaling back production. It really sucks, not cause we wanted to get rich selling suppressors, but we have a ton of cool stuff on the drawing boards that I was hoping to bring out soon. R&D is very expensive, so it looks like most of it is getting put on the backburner unfortunately.

Personally, I dont have much faith in the federal government to not only reduce "gun control", but also reduce revenue in a single bill. There is still a ton of misinformation and stigma about suppressors to the average American. NFA weapons have come a VERY long way in the last 10-15 years, but they are still a TINY percentage of the firearms industry, which is still a small percentage of the population. I would love to be wrong though. I do think the post 41F lull will make for some super short wait times soon though

I am not letting it stop me. I talk to people all the time and it amazes them that they do not need a special license to own a class III item! I explain a trust and how it works and even with 41F it is not that difficult to get suppressors. I hate to say this but Silencer Shop is really going out there to help suppressor sales. You can still use a local dealer for a purchase and with the new kiosks, take care of fingerprints, paperwork, photo and payment. Once your in the system they can reprint the fingerprint forms and photo for future purchases. Some of the local dealers you mentioned have installed these kiosks in there stores. I will be loyal to those dealers I support and if I have to get my own print cards each time to purchase from @DoglegArms or any other dealer that does not have a kiosk, I will.

You are correct that any bill that is introduced has at least a 2 year incubation period, maybe longer dealing with ATF because you know they will put up a fight. Hell, the tax changes Trump made would not even make it until his second term if he were to get elected a second term. We as a community need to find a way to get more info out via posters , flyers or other media any time a member attends a firearm related event. I wonder of Jake had any boost in sales after the Red Hills range event.

 

[DoglegArms]

Yes I have said the above many times: Buy now.

You may feel good about not paying a tax stamp but you'll pay MSRP and have to wait beyond Form 4 wait times.

 

[KGmade]

I am not letting it stop me. I talk to people all the time and it amazes them that they do not need a special license to own a class III item! I explain a trust and how it works and even with 41F it is not that difficult to get suppressors. I hate to say this but Silencer Shop is really going out there to help suppressor sales. You can still use a local dealer for a purchase and with the new kiosks, take care of fingerprints, paperwork, photo and payment. Once your in the system they can reprint the fingerprint forms and photo for future purchases. Some of the local dealers you mentioned have installed these kiosks in there stores. I will be loyal to those dealers I support and if I have to get my own print cards each time to purchase from @DoglegArms or any other dealer that does not have a kiosk, I will.

You are correct that any bill that is introduced has at least a 2 year incubation period, maybe longer dealing with ATF because you know they will put up a fight. Hell, the tax changes Trump made would not even make it until his second term if he were to get elected a second term. We as a community need to find a way to get more info out via posters , flyers or other media any time a member attends a firearm related event. I wonder of Jake had any boost in sales after the Red Hills range event.

Silencer Shop did a great job getting quite a few dealers ready with the SID Kiosks. Ive looked into getting a digital fingerprinting system that will print on the ATF Cards, but they are very expensive.

Silencerco was doing a good job with spreading good information on silencers to the public, but it has shifted more into brand awareness now. We as the NFA community just need to keep spreading good and accurate info, and trust me I know how hard it is. The ATF's convoluted rulings make it quite difficult to explain it all.

One thing ive always tried to do, even before we were making suppressors, was to take my cans to the range, and convince at least one other person to try it out. Some people are hesitant cause they dont know whats involved, and others are excited cause they know all about it but have never experienced it. Back when I shot at Big Woods once a week or so, one of the sales men told me they were moving more cans because a few people like me were sharing and educating people on their range. Now that we do it as a business, we get calls, emails, and messages on social media all the time about the process. Its really time consuming, but I make the effort to keep answering their questions to the best of my knowledge until they are happy. I like to think that I helped them get into the NFA market, even if they dont buy one of ours. All of the manufacturers are in this together, so we need to work together

 

[AtlMedic]

For those who are in the know.

I am planning on buying a can soon. If, somehow the HPA passes while I'm waiting on the stamp to come back, would I be able to just go get my suppressor?

 

[karlvv]

This seems like self preservation to me. I have wanted a can for a while, but I don't like the headache and waiting. I can guarantee, when I buy, it will be from dogleg or kg. Don't lose faith. We get it more than you think.

 

[DoglegArms]

For those who are in the know.

I am planning on buying a can soon. If, somehow the HPA passes while I'm waiting on the stamp to come back, would I be able to just go get my suppressor?

Unlikely.

 

[DoglegArms]

This seems like self preservation to me. I have wanted a can for a while, but I don't like the headache and waiting. I can guarantee, when I buy, it will be from dogleg or kg. Don't lose faith. We get it more than you think.

A promise tomorrow is worth a lot less than trying today. Dude, I'll give you deal beyond your wildest dreams. No homo.

 

[karlvv]

A promise tomorrow is worth a lot less than trying today. Dude, I'll give you deal beyond your wildest dreams. No homo.

I dont have a clue on the process. Walk me through it and you have a deal. 30 cal of corse.

 

[AtlMedic]

Unlikely.

Which part, it passing before my stamp would come back or being able to pick it up right away when the law goes into effect?

 

[permaneo vox]

" fly by night people showing up to get in on the surge " quote by Mac11FA

Do you mean every FFL that can now sell suppressors?

Or do you mean new 07FFL/SOTs that WILL be paying ITAR on top of their $500 annual SOT to manufacture last year's proven designs. That's $150+$500+$2250+business overhead just to get started. Add machinery or subcontract(variance) costs & you will see there is no quick buck$ to be made vs initial outlay.


Keep in mind, there will also be people like me, that have knowledge, capability & the particular set of skills needed to legally make my own, which will not be offered for sale.

Just like 80% firearms, there will be 80% suppressors available. Heck, they already are available, just simple designs.


I think the end result of HPA passing will be a new dawn of innovation in suppressor design, as people will pay the most, for the best! The same old shit just isn't going to sell, except to the uninformed, the ignorant & the impatient guys. Leaders will still lead, followers will still follow the herd.

 

[AtlMedic]

" fly by night people showing up to get in on the surge " quote by Mac11FA

Do you mean every FFL that can now sell suppressors?

Or do you mean new 07FFL/SOTs that WILL be paying ITAR on top of their $500 annual SOT to manufacture last year's proven designs. That's $150+$500+$2250+business overhead just to get started. Add machinery or subcontract(variance) costs & you will see there is no quick buck$ to be made vs initial outlay.


Keep in mind, there will also be people like me, that have knowledge, capability & the particular set of skills needed to legally make my own, which will not be offered for sale.

Just like 80% firearms, there will be 80% suppressors available. Heck, they already are available, just simple designs.


I think the end result of HPA passing will be a new dawn of innovation in suppressor design, as people will pay the most, for the best! The same old shit just isn't going to sell, except to the uninformed, the ignorant & the impatient guys. Leaders will still lead, followers will still follow the herd.

Wouldn't it also make selling old ones easier? As in people with an older style can could sell it easier to purchase a newer one?

 

[DoglegArms]

Which part, it passing before my stamp would come back or being able to pick it up right away when the law goes into effect?

If 41 passes and you're in the queue.

 

[permaneo vox]

Wouldn't it also make selling old ones easier? As in people with an older style can could sell it easier to purchase a newer one?

Used cans have traditionally never had much value. That should change with the newly possible 'private sales' of suppressors.

 

[AtlMedic]

If 41 passes and you're in the queue.

That almost seems like a reason to wait. I would be pissed to be a month in and then have people walk out the same day while I'm stuck waiting.

 

[AtlMedic]

Used cans have traditionally never had much value. That should change with the newly possible 'private sales' of suppressors.

That's what I was thinking.

 

[DoglegArms]

That almost seems like a reason to wait. I would be pissed to be a month in and then have people walk out the same day while I'm stuck waiting.

Wait until HPA passes? If you wait, you're going to pay full retail if you can find it in stock. Inventory will be gone in 24-48 hours from every retailer except for cans no one wants. Then you're waiting on manufacturing for production and that's a long ass wait.

Honestly, I don't think HPA is going to pass in the first 100 days. If I'm wrong, I'm fucked as a business.

 

[AtlMedic]

Wait until HPA passes? If you wait, you're going to pay full retail if you can find it in stock. Inventory will be gone in 24-48 hours from every retailer except for cans no one wants. Then you're waiting on manufacturing for production and that's a long ass wait.

Honestly, I don't think HPA is going to pass in the first 100 days. If I'm wrong, I'm fucked as a business.

Oh I'm not waiting, I'm saving up for that Dobbs can and will get it as soon as I got the funds together. I meant more along the lines of when the law starts making real progress.

For example it passes in say September but doesn't go into effect till January. If you buy in Sept but have to wait 8 months for the paperwork it would suck when the law has passed to get rid of the wait.


I don't think it will pass the first 100 days but I suspect it will in his first year.

 

[Kobayashi]

I think dealers and manufacturers need to walk a fine line with this sort of message. I realize that this 'pre HPA' window of time will be painful for them, but a "the sky is falling" marketing message may not be the best idea. If there are dealers/manufacturers who are purposely not supporting the bill in an effort to protect the status quo and their own business, it could hurt sales even worse.

I don't think manufacturing delays will be as pronounced as some are predicting. The smarter companies are backing the legislation and planning their production ramp up at the same time. Silencerco is a big supporter, and I'm sure they are planning accordingly. There are also plenty of machine shops capable of producing suppressors. Many simply haven't been willing to jump through the current government hoops to become a licensed manufacturer, but they will ramp up quickly after the restrictions have been lifted.

Personally, I remain unaffected by it all. I'm simply not a buyer under the current laws and cost structure, and I will only become a buyer after (if) HPA passes. I've waited this long, and waiting a little longer doesn't bother me. I do hope that Dogleg and and others are able to weather the short term storm and structure their businesses for strong profitability under a (hopefully) freer market.