From Silencer Shop:
"WE ARE EXPECTING THE TRANSITION TO ATF 41F TO GO THROUGH 3 STAGES:
1) Record Surge in Sales
So far we are seeing a record surge in sales of all NFA items - and manufacturers are working hard to beef up capacity to keep up with the increased demand.
Anything that's on the shelf now or that's already incoming is probably going to be sold pretty quickly.
Unfortunately, this means ATF wait times are also going to start heading up pretty quickly - which will impact your incoming Form 3 approvals. Basically, getting new inventory in a timely manner is going to get harder.
2) Major Market Drop-Off
This is the "bad news" but we don't expect it to be a long term problem.
Once ATF 41F goes into effect this summer, we expect a major market drop-off - probably the largest this market has ever seen.
There are several reasons for this:
Market Exhaustion: With customers rushing to get their orders in under the current rules, using a trust, a lot of demand is simply being moved forward. Whenever that happens, you'll find a gap where that demand would have been - which we expect to be over this coming summer & fall.
Typical Summer Slow-Down: Summer is a slow time for this industry anyway, which will compound the slowing caused by the ATF 41F implementation.
Market Confusion: With the new ATF 41F ruling will come a lot of new paperwork, customer mis-information, and rule interpretation by the NFA Branch. This will also contribute to the slowdown until the market & the NFA Branch can figure out how the new system works.
Longer Wait Times: With the increase in paperwork caused by 41F, it's highly likely that wait times will go up significantly. The ATF even mentioned this in their final ruling.
This will be mitigated - to some small degree - by a temporary surge in individual sales; but, that will be a drop in the bucket compared to the trust sales that go away.
For anybody who's been in this business for long, you know this will be the scariest phase - because you run the risk of ordering a lot of inventory to cover the surge in sales, only to have it arrive too late...
3) Rebalancing Under the New Rules
By next year, we expect to see a market rebalancing - and a continuation of growth. Mostly because silencers sell themselves, and it's hard to imagine not using one once you have.
Even though trusts are typically a better way to purchase a suppressor, we expect the new rule to push many customers into registering as an individual. It will be interesting to see what the actual trust to individual ratio is once the dust settles on this ruling.
Unfortunately, the suppressors that are in demand now probably won't be the same models customers will be asking for by the time this rebalancing occurs."
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I agree with most of it. Not convinced if market exhaustion will happen as soon as they anticipate. The thought of Hillary in office should keep the demand going through most of 2016. A lot of people are still unaware of 41F. And then there those that are aware but don't understand the ramifications.
"WE ARE EXPECTING THE TRANSITION TO ATF 41F TO GO THROUGH 3 STAGES:
1) Record Surge in Sales
So far we are seeing a record surge in sales of all NFA items - and manufacturers are working hard to beef up capacity to keep up with the increased demand.
Anything that's on the shelf now or that's already incoming is probably going to be sold pretty quickly.
Unfortunately, this means ATF wait times are also going to start heading up pretty quickly - which will impact your incoming Form 3 approvals. Basically, getting new inventory in a timely manner is going to get harder.
2) Major Market Drop-Off
This is the "bad news" but we don't expect it to be a long term problem.
Once ATF 41F goes into effect this summer, we expect a major market drop-off - probably the largest this market has ever seen.
There are several reasons for this:
Market Exhaustion: With customers rushing to get their orders in under the current rules, using a trust, a lot of demand is simply being moved forward. Whenever that happens, you'll find a gap where that demand would have been - which we expect to be over this coming summer & fall.
Typical Summer Slow-Down: Summer is a slow time for this industry anyway, which will compound the slowing caused by the ATF 41F implementation.
Market Confusion: With the new ATF 41F ruling will come a lot of new paperwork, customer mis-information, and rule interpretation by the NFA Branch. This will also contribute to the slowdown until the market & the NFA Branch can figure out how the new system works.
Longer Wait Times: With the increase in paperwork caused by 41F, it's highly likely that wait times will go up significantly. The ATF even mentioned this in their final ruling.
This will be mitigated - to some small degree - by a temporary surge in individual sales; but, that will be a drop in the bucket compared to the trust sales that go away.
For anybody who's been in this business for long, you know this will be the scariest phase - because you run the risk of ordering a lot of inventory to cover the surge in sales, only to have it arrive too late...
3) Rebalancing Under the New Rules
By next year, we expect to see a market rebalancing - and a continuation of growth. Mostly because silencers sell themselves, and it's hard to imagine not using one once you have.
Even though trusts are typically a better way to purchase a suppressor, we expect the new rule to push many customers into registering as an individual. It will be interesting to see what the actual trust to individual ratio is once the dust settles on this ruling.
Unfortunately, the suppressors that are in demand now probably won't be the same models customers will be asking for by the time this rebalancing occurs."
############################
I agree with most of it. Not convinced if market exhaustion will happen as soon as they anticipate. The thought of Hillary in office should keep the demand going through most of 2016. A lot of people are still unaware of 41F. And then there those that are aware but don't understand the ramifications.
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